Primary, Alternate, Contingency, Emergency (PACE)
At first glance, PACE planning may seem a little excessive. We first looked at the PACE plan in the communications section. But as we work through it, I think you will see its value.
Primary—I hope that if you have been making preparations, or at least plan to, your primary plan during an emergency is to stay home and weather the storm. If you have enough supplies to avoid the mad runs on the supermarkets and such when an event occurs, then you have taken the first big step toward surviving a breakdown of the public systems of support.
Alternate—The ideal alternate plan is to temporarily relocate somewhere else until conditions improve. In the world of prepper fantasies, this is the off-grid cabin in the woods. However, very, very few people have that as an option. A more practical solution is to live in the home of a family member or close friend who is out of the danger area that is forcing you to leave your home.
Contingency—In this case, the contingency plan is what happens when moving to the alternate location is impossible by normal means. You may have to change routes, move on foot or by boat, or do whatever else is appropriate and available in your situation.
Emergency—This is the no-shit, grab-and-go stage with only a few minutes warning. This is the bag we put together in the very beginning. This is the forced relocation somewhere other than a place we have prepared in advance. In the mainstream prepper world, this is often the first or perhaps only plan.
Planning Process
The Marine Corps has 7 Marine Expeditionary Units (MEU). At any given time, at least two are always deployed on ships to hotspots or potential hotspots worldwide. Prior to those six-month deployments, the individual units that compromised the MEU spent six months sharpening their individual unit skills, and then another six months with all the units of the MEU working together.
They must be competent at about a dozen missions. They perform a three-day test at the end of the training process (about a month before they deploy on a ship). During the three-day test, they must perform any of their assigned missions with only six hours notice. They will be performing two missions at a time, and as soon as retrograde from one mission begins, they are assigned a new mission to execute.
The planning process makes this work in a compressed timeline because the basic mission requirements were trained exhaustively during the training cycle. At least the big major moving parts of the missions are trained. In the six hours or less when they receive a mission and execute it, the specifics of the location, enemy, and specific requirements are considered. When they brief the mission, they are not briefing every detail, just the differences between this specific mission and the core mission they have trained.
This relies on each member of the team/family thoroughly knowing the basic plan and their specific actions. For example, the communications plan we covered earlier. If we can’t get in touch by voice then text, if you can’t get through right away, text someone out of the area, etc…
This planning also considers time as a critical element. They do not try to get the perfect plan. No such perfect plan exists; if it did, it would take too long to create, and the conditions would have changed. We see this in business a lot. We call it analysis paralysis when a group or individual constantly tries to catch up and never executes on time.
Therefore, you shoot for the 80% solution, understanding that no plan survives contact with the enemy. There will always be friction, additional information, and reactions from others you could not know or failed to consider. And that is okay. Learning to work with the 80% plan keeps you more adaptive.
Start by beginning the planning. As we are going through this book make notes along the way as a best guess starting point.
The second step in this process is to conduct reconnaissance. In this instance, it will usually mean reviewing various sources of information to improve your plan. However, it may also mean physically conducting reconnaissance to adapt information or ensure you have the most accurate information available.
With your new information, you are now able to complete the planning.
Once you develop your execution plan for each PACE condition, you must test it. Push it to the point that it is solid or falls apart. When it falls apart, be critical as to why it did. Go back to the planning process and correct the issue. Train it. Test it. Repeat until it works.
Go back through your preparations to this point and consider how you might be able to test that system. Can you go two weeks without buying any food at all? 30 days? 60 days? 90 days?
Can you shut off your water at the meter or power at the distribution panel and function for an entire weekend? Week? 10 days?
Write down what needs improvement and try it again in a different season. Rehearse the plan with the people involved.